What to expect for the Web in 2010

Nate Klaiber said: 

I am curious to see your statistics around "as more Web sites are being converted from HTML to Flash because of its increased flexibility" What data do you have to back this up. Flash fails to solve the most fundamental problems of the web, while creating a multitude more for the user experience. The core question is: How is flash more flexible than HTML?

Development said: 

At thunder::tech, the rate at which we've built all-Flash sites is increasing (thundertech.com and byconsulting.org) as is the rate at which we've been using heavier-duty Flash movies to take the place of HTML-built components within primarily HTML-driven sites. What do you consider to be the most fundamental problems of the web? The nature of the web poses various challenges to many people (and an equal number of advantages) depending on the goal they are trying to accomplish. From a marketer's perspective, a strong focus on user experience is not a negative quality in a development platform. In addition to its user interface capabilities, Flash is more likely to perform consistently across platforms than HTML. Development advantages also exist in the languages: ActionScript's typological mechanisms for classes, polymorphism, and interfacing are more robust than JavaScript's. ActionScript's hierarchy predefined lexical object types (EventDispatcher, DisplayObject, Loader...) based on those mechanisms are also well-thought-through and lend themselves to quickly deploying solid applications. HTML files are, by developed nature, documents which take on properties of applications with user interfaces when needed; Flash movies are applications with user interfaces. A site which more closely matches a document perhaps ought to be HTML; an organization which aims to deliver a rich user experience would fair better using Flash.

Nate Klaiber said: 

Seeking some more clarification. I'll try and leave out the logistics of Flash. So the statement of "more Web sites are being converted from HTML to Flash" really pertains to Thundertech, and not backed up by any other statistics or industry patterns? What heavier-duty Flash movies are you using to replace the "HTML-built" components? I am not sure what is even meant by this. When is a strong focus on the user experience considered a negative quality? This should be the first step in developing any application for a client. The user interface capabilities are one of the biggest problems with Flash. They are more hindrances than anything. Flash developers tend to try and re-invent the UI, which is a very large UX problem. Not just re-inventing them from a visual perspective, but also from a functional perspective (IE scrollbars, select menus, etc). The fact that you make this statement shows a lack of knowledge of the web in general - including it's constraints and how to work within them. The answer isn't to use something proprietary and different from the tool everyone is used to (the browser). That's a cop-out. The consistency debate has taken place - years ago. The problems have been solved - years ago. This argument simply isn't relevant anymore. I won't deny or debate ActionScript's capabilities. They are powerful, when used properly and in the right context. I would debate that the web is not that context. Sounds like a clear misconception of HTML, it's purpose, and it's usefulness now in powering web applications. I would do some research on recent companies and how they are moving to HTML5 as a web application standard (Google has YouTube in development right now for moving to HTML5 video, Apple has always been a proponent of using the tools available to you across the wider platform and devices, Yahoo has always pushed for standards in their apps - Microformats, and moving away from Flash in favor of JS based interfaces, both Google and Apple use web based platforms for their larger tools as well, etc). These companies understand the experience and the wide range of device independence - not locking into proprietary software. Proprietary is not the answer, especially as people access web applications from more than one platform or device. I disagree completely that someone trying to build a RIA would fare better using Flash. Again, I challenge you to look at the larger players today and where they are focusing their efforts. Care to show examples of where Flash is better? Flash ultimately has to talk to a Datasource (which any other web application could do through a handful of ways), and Flash ultimately tries to talk to the browser - which it has to do with JavaScript. I have yet to find an example where Flash was better suited to solve the problem, without creating more problems in the process. I also have a handful of other questions on my own site http://www.nateklaiber.com/blog/2010/02/09/dear-html-css-and-javascript-flash-is-more-flexible which seek to answer the most basic usability/accessiblity questions of Flash in the browser and across devices. These are the most important questions. What are your thoughts there?